Where is South Africa on the Property Clock
Much like any other market, real estate markets rise and fall.
Where we are in the cycle will dictate how easy it is to sell, or how easy it is to sell. This is often given an analogy of a clock in that its cyclical. So just where is the South Africa Property market?
Between 2009 and 2014, The Western Cape and specifically the CBD and South Peninsula, enjoyed rapid growth over several years, buoyed by international investment and tourism. That correlation to the 9pm on the clock saw it enjoy double digit growth that the rest of the country did not see. As 205 and 2016 came around, the market slowed as the peak outpaced the affordability of most residents. Supply outpaced demand and house prices started to stabilize.
A year later, and protests around service delivery started to scare away international foreigners. Large fires across the mountain gave visitors from other parts of the country food for thought and choose alternative destinations as cycling and running events started to get cancelled. A year later, the drought hit hard and lasted 2 years, until we reach today where the corona virus has all but stopped life and the economy.
Prices have started to slowly fall as the start of the decline begins. More is undoubtedly to come and everyday south Africans will feel the pinch more and more. How long will this next stage last… we need to look back in history for that answer by taking a look at the 23 year property clock! That is a global standard for how the prices rise and fall and South Africa is no different. Looking at our last peak in 2004, we can most likely look forward the next peak in roughly 7 years from now – That’s 2027
For those looking to sell, now would be the right time. For those looking to buy, best to wait till 2021 when prices are expected to start bottoming out.
